IEEE Future Directions
Related Articles
According to the Imperial College foresight study several technologies that are brewing in research labs today are likely to have a disruptive impact on the planet: Planetary-scale spectroscopy, Stratospheric aerosol, Genomic vaccines, Invisibility shields, Factory photosynthesis, New Materials, Fusion Power, 4-dimensional materials, Broadcasting of electricity, Bio-plastic, Pollution eating buildings, Vacuum-tube transport and Scram jets. Let’s see.
Planetary-scale spectroscopy
The human species, specifically homo sapiens, has dramatically changed the planet. We are focussing today on the increase in CO2 resulting from industrial, transportation and farming activity and that is important but over the millennia we changed the planet profoundly, even though we may not think about this most of the time. The variety of plants and animals have been affected by the agricultural revolution: the most widespread plants are wheat, rice, barley…. and that is because we cultivate them and we have made space for them at the expenses of other plants; likewise the most widespread animals are fowls (chicken) that we domesticated 8,000 years ago, with some 19 billions of them at any time, 40 billions if you look at a year window, followed by cows (cattle) with roughly 1 billion animals that we domesticated probably 10,000 years ago (some estimate only 5,000 years ago). In parallel big animals that used to roam the planet have disappeared as consequence of our ancestors hunting. This just to say that we have a tradition of being bad to the planet ecosystem that goes back thousands of years. A even stronger reason, now that the impact of our species on the planet is understood, to take action and avoid further damage!
An essential component for being able to take care of the environment is to understand what is going on and what is the impact of our actions. This requires getting data and one of the way scientists are studying is to create a planetary-scale spectroscopy. This technology can provide data on the situation of the planet and of its biomass. A continuous monitoring and correlation to various local situation improves our understanding of the effect of our “way of life”.
The same technology is being applied, with increasing precision, in the observation of other planets, including exo-planets. Organisations like ESO (European Southern Observatory) are working in this area and it is likely that by 2040 technology will have increased to the point of delivering very fine observations of our and other planets. The observation of other planets will increase our knowledge and understanding but for this century, and probably the following ones, the planet that will matter most will remain our own Earth.
Stratospheric aerosol
As far as we can go back in time we have testimony of “magic” used to change the climate, mostly to have rain. It could be chants, offers to gods … The desire to engineer (that’s what we say today) the climate has always been there, although the “magic” was not really working…
Science tells us that climate changes happened in the past and it is pointing to specific causes. Hence, the dream of changing climate, in principle, could become reality if we were able to replicate the causes that led to climate changes in the past.
Volcanic eruptions have been one of the sure causes of climate change. These eruptions send ashes and sulfur molecules in the stratosphere creating a sort of blanket that shields part of the solar rays, thus decreasing the amount of energy reaching the Earth. Basically, it cools down the Earth and this leads, obviously, to climate change.
Scientists are now looking at ways to replicate this effect without involving a volcano (which is well beyond our technological capabilities and, besides, it is hard to find one conveniently located where it would be needed, not to speak about the many undesired effects an eruption creates).
Around 2040 it is predicted that we will have technology to place an aerosol up in the stratosphere to shields part of the Sun’s rays, creating a planetary albedo (reflection) that would decrease the planet temperature in specific regions. There are several technologies that look promising. The idea is not new, if you google the web you’ll discover papers published over 50 years ago, but it is only recently that those ideas have moved from being pure speculation to becoming engineering goals.
Imagine: if all goes according to plan we might have the opportunity of engineering climate, having sunshine and rain as needed (not clear to me who will be in charge to decide what weather I will get tomorrow!).
That would clearly be a disruption, with high political implications and source of arguing, if not fight. Changing the climate in one area, let’s say warming up Canada, will change the climate in many other places (and the broader the area interested by the engineering the bigger the effects worldwide). Climate is the result of an extremely complex set of interactions (remember that butterfly flapping its wings in Japan and eventually resulting in an hurricane in the Caribbean?). Changing it locally will also impact globally.
