IEEE Future Directions
Related Articles
Following on the previous posts looking at the “5 reasons why 5g is the Future“:
4. Immersive Entertainment
The article points out that the increased capacity offered by 5G will support the growing demand of video consumption (yes, that extra spectrum will surely be put to use) and it will enable the growing slate of applications using Augmented and Virtual Reality (some discussion is needed here, see below).
Indeed, all past trends indicate that video, and particularly video entertainment, keeps growing and it is no surprise. We have better and better ways of displaying video, images are easily captured by our brain and make for a strong impression (something that advertisers love). As smartphones are getting ubiquitous, their screen is growing in size (new smartphones are likely to have screens bigger than their size! by folding them to stay in our pocket or purse, and unfolding when we want to watch them…) they are making for a very good fruition platform. And, of course, smartphones are always with us.
The additional great motivator for us, as users, is that we are getting an all you can eat in terms of bandwidth (or very close to it). All of this is shifting video consumption to wireless. The expectation is that the average mobile data downloaded per user will be growing from toady’s 8GB per month to 11.7GB in 2019 to 84.4GB in 2028. That is 10 fold increase in 10 years.
However, the last motivator (connectivity is perceived as free) is not a good point for Operators, particularly in view of having to deploy 5G with high density cells to support the increased traffic load -hence high investment for both spectrum license and infrastructure deployment. They will basically have to spend quite a lot of money with no extra revenues (in practice) on the horizon. All the hopes of getting people to pay extra for using 5G is just wishful thinking. It is the same talk we listen to at the time of 4G that was supposed to be offered at a premium price. It did not happen and there is no reason why 5G should be any different.
The reason raised by the report is more specific. It is not about entertainment in general but about “immersive” entertainment where the claim is that only the low latency and big bandwidth offered by 5G can effectively deliver it. The corollary (not stated in the report) I guess would be: “If people want immersive entertainment and if only 5G can deliver it then they should be ready to pay for it and Operators will make lots of money”.
In yesterday’s post I discussed the use of Virtual Reality as a way to provide immersive sensations when coupled with haptic devices like the D-Box active seat. There are two aspects that need to be taken into consideration: the market size and the way of fruition. In terms of market size although very catchy it is unlikely that such a kind of immersive entertainment will make real volumes. It is much more likely to remain a niche and as such unlikely to generate big bucks. In terms of fruition you are not going to carry around the D-Box (or whatever haptic device) and therefore to need a wireless network connection. Yes, you will use wireless but it will be a local WiFi network that can provide all the bandwidth you need with the low latency delivered by a fixed network (which has to be used also by 5G).
Hence, although Immersive entertainment will have its fans in the future it will not be the silver bullet making 5G profitable. Besides, companies selling immersive entertainment will push it much sooner than the time 5G will reach a significant penetration. Will 5G be used for that? Of course. As soon as it will be available and its cost will be like the one of 4G it will be used.
Will there be some cases where immersive entertainment on the move will be desirable and where 5G will be the only means to deliver it? Yes, I am sure of that, but they will be few, too few to develop a sound business model.
Wait. The reason included VR and Augmented Reality, AR. Now, Augmented Reality is much more likely to be useful on the move. Actually I bet that AR will dominate VR both in terms of massive use (number of users and frequency of use) and in terms of market value (advertisers will thrive on AR).
Is 5G absolutely required? Well, my take (also considering the way AR is evolving) is that most of the rendering will take place in the terminal (the tablet and smartphone) keeping the bandwidth required to a minimum. 4G should be able to support it with no problem. What about latency? For most applications (the ones that create volume) a latency of 10ms or one of 80ms will make no difference whatsoever. So, no, I don’t think that 5G is needed.
What is needed is an overall increase of network capacity, both at the core and at the edges and 5G, along with the other evolutions that are taking place at network(s) level will be part of that growth. I’ll address that in the concluding post of this series.
