IEEE Future Directions
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Area 8 – Digital Twins
Digital twins, the replica in bits of an entity, as minute as a switch, complex as a turbine or cluster of many digital twins like a city, are an expanding reality in many areas: manufacturing, operation, planning and are now starting in education, health care… Digital twins are becoming more than a replica, they are actually becoming so extended (as an example recording the whole history of an entity) that there is the problem of separating the exact replica from the other data. Besides, digital twin can have a life of their own (avatar) augmenting the capabilities of their real twin.
Q 8.1
Internet of Things (IoT) are mirrored in cyberspace, each one having its own digital twin. Will their aggregation create digital twins in the next decade that will be open to stimulate third parties services?
Unanimous agreement of the expert that this will be the case.
Q 8.2
Is digital twin standardization required to foster their use by third parties?
Unanimous agreement of the expert that standardisation will not be required in this area.
Q 8.3
Will digital twin economic value exceed the value of their real counterpart (i.e., will we see new business models based on the offering at nominal cost of the real twin as the hook to create value at the digital level)?
A majority of experts foresee a growth of value of the digital twins that within the SAS Initiative timeframe leads to exceed the value of their physical counterpart, in line with the current trend of data increasing their value to exceed the value of the objects themselves (e.g. more value resides in the song’s consumer data that in charging for playing a song). A minority does not foresee this happening. In other words, a majority applies to Digital Twins the rules of the Data Economy, whilst a minority consider Digital Twins as real objects bound to the rules of standard economy.
The current trend in replacing human workers with automation continues and embraces digital twin technology.
Q 8.4
Following on 8.3, will digital twins mark the transition from an economy of products to an economy of intelligent services?
Unanimous agreement of the expert that this will be the case. However, it does not follow that Digital Twins can be considered as the prime cause of this shift, more likely a con-cause or a side effect.
Q 8.5
Digital twins are, and will go, beyond being the digital replica of an entity to become a multidimensional representation of that entity, in space and in time. Will this multidimensionality be subject to different ownership?
The majority of experts foresee a growth in the representation/mirroring power of Digital Twins and their extension beyond this to become, partly, independent and complementary entities with respect to their physical twin. A minority does not see this evolution.
A first step is to integrate all data that concerns a given individual and to give that person access to the developing Digital Twin. The second one is to establish interfaces and applications that allow a mutual learning (deep) between the owner/user and the Digital Twin. The third – simultaneous – development will be an economy of Digital Twin management and exchange.
Q 8.6
Given that today we already have profiling, will humans have their digital twin in the next decade?
A slight majority of experts foresee the evolution towards every person having his own digital twin as inevitable, starting in the next decade, as a linear evolution of profiling. Notice that whilst profiling is usually set up by a third party with or without our awareness (and agreement) a digital twin stems from an explicit intention of the person that remains in control of his digital twin. So, saying the digital twins for human represent an evolution of profiling may be misleading.
This is already the case with hidden profiling and its use by business and government. The symbiotic aspects of such uses, I call the Digital Unconscious, a new feature of our daily life that is hidden from view and only manifest by its effects on our behaviour and buying habits.
A minority of experts do not see this as happening during the SAS Initiative timeframe.
Q 8.7
What is the likely roadmap to a fully developed human digital twin?
Most experts consider 2040 as the most likely timeframe for massive adoption of human digital twins, although a few indicate this happening in the 2030 timeframe.
A possible roadmap:
- 2020/30 digital twin for Health Care and as access to services in the retail and entertainment
- 2030 digital twin as knowledge twin used in education and GIG economy,
- 2030/2040 digital twin embedding the genotype to simulate the phenotype,
- 2050 IP on digital twin and use of simulation to create teamwork, selling of digital twin access
Q 8.8
Will symbioses take place at the level of digital twins and then have effect on the real human twin(s)?
Most experts do not see symbioses happening at the digital twin level, although a few consider digital twin as a crucial component in a symbiosis.
Humans are always impacted by their technology. It is unlikely that people will lose track of who they are and who is the twin, unless the twin achieves consciousness–then it will likely no longer be a twin.
Q 8.9
How will we use digital twins to learn according an optimal progression?
Most experts consider digital twins as useful tools for forecasting, a few see them also playing a role in monitoring both education accrual and the fading away of knowledge.
- 2020 self growing cv,
- 2030 digital twin prompting education and used to customise education,
- 2040 shared education with the extended digital twin.
Q 8.10
How will digital twins alter the learning process itself?
Most experts consider digital twin playing a role in cognitive augmentation, i.e. the seamless use of our digital twin to accrue knowledge and make it available on demand.
The digital twin will be watching our knowledge gaps with respects to needs, will observe what we forget and step in to reinforce learning/refreshing, will take up the task of splitting the learning process accommodating to needs and opportunities.
A digital twin will be the equivalent of a turbo-charged fitbit i.e. semi customized and customized
recommendations based on the data you’ve generated will provide reinforcement for certain behaviours and behavioural changes.
If a twin could participate in an experience and then teach the person what it had learned, that could be a new way to learn.
Q 8.11
How will digital twins enhance not only just-in-time skills, but also the fundamental understanding of Nature?
Unanimous agreement of the expert that digital twins will be a useful tool.
Through the ability to perceive levels of scale and wavelength spectra not perceptible by humans, augmented by rapid processing of complex mathematical analyses beyond humans (with the exception of savants and individuals with 180~220 IQs).
A digital avatar could engage in activities and environments that would be dangerous for physical people. They could provide a more absolute form of memory that isn’t subject to the human brain’s ability to be manipulated (intentionally or otherwise).
Q 8.12
Will digital twins enhance human creativity? If so, in what ways?
Unanimous agreement of the expert that digital twins will enhance human creativity, mostly by connecting to a limitless cyberspace where everything, from a creativity point of view, is possible, not being constrained by physical rules.
