IEEE

Energy Forecasting

 Chair: Dr. Tao Hong, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, USA. Email: hong@uncc.edu

 Vice Chair: Dr. Shu Fan, Monash University, Australia. Email: fan.shu@monash.edu

 Scope:  

Utility application oriented energy forecasting

Focus on practical needs of utilities

Data: outlier detection, data cleansing, selection of weather station(s)

Inputs: temperature forecast, wind forecast, solar forecast, EV load forecast, customer behavior, demand response activities, loss evaluation

Modeling: hierarchical (system-substation-feeder-meter) forecasting, multi-region forecasting

Applications (outputs): price forecasting, demand response analysis, planning of demand side management, risk management, weather normalization, loss evaluation

 Current Projects

Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014

Benchmarking of short term load forecasting accuracy

Literature review of load forecasting techniques and practices

 Completed Projects

Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid — Special Issue on “Analytics for Energy Forecasting with Applications to Smart Grid”

IEEE PES Tutorial: Energy Forecasting in the Smart Grid Era

 Activities

2014 PES General Meeting, National Harbor, MD, July 27 – 31, 2014

Panel Session: “Load Forecasting: the State of the Practice

Chairs: Tao Hong and Hamidreza Zareipour

1.   “Data Issues in Spatial Electric Load Forecasting” — Edgar Manuel Carreno Franco, UNIOESTE, Brazil

2.   “Preparing EKPC’s Load Forecasting Process for PJM Integration” — Jamie Hall, East Kentuky Power Cooperative, USA

3.   “Local Short and Middle Term Electricity Load Forecasting with Semi-Parametric Additive Models” — Raphael Nédellec, EDF R&D, France

4.   “Long-term Load Forecasting at ERCOT” — Calvin Opheim, ERCOT, USA

5.   “Supply and Demand Forecasting in Competitive Markets: The Case of Alberta” — John Esaiw, Alberta Electric System Operator, Canada

6.   “Combining Load Forecasts from Multiple Vendors” — Tao Hong, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, USA

2014 IEEE PES T&D Conference & Exposition, Chicago, IL, April 14 – 17, 2014

Panel Session: “Integrating Energy Forecasts into Utility Planning and Operations: Perspectives from Market Operators

Chairs: Tao Hong and Hamidreza Zareipour

1.    “Integrating Energy Forecasts into Utility Planning and Operations: Perspectives from Market Operators” — Hamidreza Zareipour, University of Calgary, Canada

2.    “Renewable Integration in the Operations of the California Energy Market” — Guillermo Bautista Alderete, CAISO, USA

3.    “Load and Renewable Forecast in Grid Operations and Planning: ERCOT Experiences” — Sandip Sharma and Pengwei Du, ERCOT, USA

4.    “Wind Forecast Integration at MISO” — Kristian Ruud, MISO, USA

5.    “Integrating Forecasts into Alberta’s Market” — John Esaiw, AESO, Canada

Panel Session: “Integrating Energy Forecasts into Utility Planning and Operations: Perspectives from Market Participants

Chairs: Tao Hong and Hamidreza Zareipour

1.    “Integrating Energy Forecasts into Utility Planning and Operations: Perspectives from Market Participants” — Tao Hong, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, USA

2.    “Optimal Utility Operations Planning and the Vital Role of Short-Term Forecasting” — Arnie de Castro, SAS, USA

3.    “Preparing for the Distribution Planners’ Increasingly Complex Job: A Pacific Gas and Electric LoadSEER Case Study” — Scott Smith, Integral Analytics, USA

4.    “Joining the Energy Market: Experiences from AECC” — Crystal Glidewell, Arkansas Electric Cooperative Corporation, USA

5.    “Meeting the Needs of Power Supply: NCEMC Experiences” — Jason Wilson, North Carolina Electric Membership Corporation, USA

2013 PES General Meeting, Vancouver, BC, Canada, 21 – 25 July, 2013

Tutorial: “Energy Forecasting in the Smart Grid Era

Instructors:

1.    Tao Hong, SAS

2.    Shu Fan, Monash University

3.    Hamidreza Zareipour, University of Calgary

4.    Pierre Pinson, Technical University of Denmark

Panel Session: “Energy Forecasting: the State of the Art

Chair: Tao Hong

1.    “Load Curve Data Cleansing Methodologies and Tool” — Wenyuan Li and Adriel Lau, BC Hydro, Canada

2.    “Load Forecasting in Australian Energy Market” — Shu Fan, Monash University, Australia

3.    “Long Term Probabilistic Load Forecasting at NCEMC” — Jason Wilson, North Carolina Electric Membership Corporation, USA

4.    “Knowing One’s Limits – a DR Forecaster’s Challenge” — Jeremy Donnell, PG&E, USA

5.    “Modeling and Forecasting toward the Optimization of Regional Operation of PHEV Charging Stations” — Wei-Jen Lee, University of Texas – Arlington, USA

6.    “Price Forecasting in Modern Power Grids” — Hamidreza Zareipour, University of Calgary, USA

7.    “State of the Art in Wind Power Forecasting: Operations and Market Perspectives“– Pierre Pinson, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark

Panel Session: “Global Energy Forecasting Competition Final Presentations

Chair: Tao Hong

1.    “Global Energy Forecasting Competition: An Introduction” — Tao Hong, SAS, USA

2.    “GEFCom2012 Hierarchical Load Forecasting: Exploratory Data Analysis” — Stuart McMenamin, Itron, USA

3.    “GEFCom2012 Hierarchical Load Forecasting: A Gradient Boosting Approach” — Souhaib Ben Taieb, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium

4.    “GEFCom2012 Hierarchical Load Forecasting Using Multi-Scale Semi-Parametric Models” — Raphael Nédellec, EDF R&D, France

5.    “GEFCom2012 Hierarchical Load Forecasting Using Gradient Boosting Machines and Gaussian Process Regression” — James Robert Lloyd, University of Cambridge, UK

6.    “GEFCom2012 Hierarchical Load Forecasting Using a Refined Parametric Model” — Colin Singleton, CountingLab Ltd, UK

7.    “GEFCom2012 Wind Power Forecasting: An Ensemble Forecasting Approach with Gaussian Processes and Neural Networks” — Duehee Lee, University of Texas at Austin, USA

8.    “GEFCom2012 Wind Power Forecasting Using Gradient Boosting Machines” — Gabor I. Nagy, Budapset University of Technology and Economics, Hungary

9.    “GEFCom2012 Wind Power Forecasting: A Hybrid Approach” — Matt Wytock, Carnegie Mellon University, USA

10.  “GEFCom2012 Wind Power Forecasting: A k-Nearest Neighbors Approach” — Ekaterina Mangalova, Siberian State Aerospace University, Russia

11.  “GEFCom2012 Wind Power Forecasting: A Feature Engineering Approach” — Lucas Eustaquio, DTI Sistemas, Brazil

 

2012 PES General Meeting, San Diego, CA, 22 – 26 July, 2012

Panel Session: “Demand Response: Analytics, Practice, and Challenges in Smart Grid Environment

Chair: Tao Hong; Co-chair: Fan Shu

Topics and panelists:

1.    “Demand Response Forecasting in Practice: Challenges and Opportunities” — Liang Huang, PGE, USA

2.    “On the Impact of Demand Response: Load Shedding, Energy Conservation, and Further Implications to Load Forecasting” — Tao Hong, SAS, USA

3.    “Pre-shifting Customer Behavior in Response to Dynamic Pricing Events” — Richard Song, SCE, USA

4.    “Demand Response Participation in Wholesale Energy Markets” — Masood Parvania, Sharif University of Technology, Iran

5.    “Demand Response – An Assessment of Load Participation in the ERCOT Nodal Market“, Wei-Jen Lee, UT Arlington, USA

6.    “Activity-Based Costing Applied To Automotive Manufacturing“, Seog-Chan Oh, General Motors, USA

7.    “IDROP: The New Generation of Demand Response“, Thomas Osterhus, Integral Analytics, USA

Panel Session: “Load Forecasting Methodologies and Applications in Operations and Planning

Chair: Tao Hong; Co-chair: Fan Shu

Topics and panelists:

1.    “Electric Market and Operations Reliability” — Mingguo Hong, Midwest ISO, USA

2.    “Forecasting Electricity Demand in Australian National Electricity Market” — Shu Fan, Monash University, Australia

3.    “Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting at Southern California Edison” — Raymond Johnson, SCE, USA

4.    “Short Term Load Forecasting based on Improved ESTAR GARCH Model” — Hao Chen, Nanjing Power Supply Company, China

5.    “An Efficient Kernel Machine Technique for Short-term Load Forecasting under Smart Grid Environment” — Hiroyuki Mori, Meiji University, Japan

6.    “Impact of Demand Response Contracts on Load Forecasting in a Smart Grid Environment” — Qun Zhou, Alstom Grid, USA

7.    “Weighted Parallel Algorithm to Improve the Performance of Short-term Wind Power Forecasting” — Wei-Jen Lee, UT Arlington, USA

8.    “Considering Urban Dynamics in Spatial Electric Load Forecasting” — Edgar Franco, UNIOESTE, Brazil

2011 PES General Meeting, Detroit, MI, 25-29 July, 2011

Panel Session: “Practical Aspects of Electric Load Forecasting

Chair: Tao Hong; Co-chair: Fran Li

Topics and panelists:

1.    “A Naive Multiple Linear Regression Benchmark for Short Term Load Forecasting” — Tao Hong, SAS, USA

2.    “Comparative Study on Load Forecasting Technologies for Different Geographical Distributed Loads” — Wei-Jen Lee, UT Arlington, USA

3.    “Short Term Load Forecasting using Regime-Switching GARCH Models” — Hao Chen, Nanjing Power Supply Company, China

4.    “Short-term Load Forecasting Using Semi-parametric Additive Models” — Shu Fan, Monash University, Australia

5.    “MGE Experience with INSITE Spatial Load Forecasting” — David Barger, MGE, USA

6.    “Including a Combined Fuzzy and Probabilistic Load Model in Transmission Energy Loss Evaluation: Experience at BC Hydro” — Wenyuan Li, BCTC, Canada